Decision Analysis For Management Judgment

Author: Paul Goodwin
Editor: Wiley Global Education
ISBN: 1118889258
Size: 13,81 MB
Format: PDF
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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

Advances In Decision Analysis

Author: Ward Edwards
Editor: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139466127
Size: 12,20 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
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Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications.

Project Economics And Decision Analysis Probabilistic Models

Author: M. A. Mian
Editor: PennWell Books
ISBN: 9780878148554
Size: 19,31 MB
Format: PDF
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This comprehensive two-volume set provides all the necessary concepts of capital investment evaluation, capital budgeting, & decision analysis.

Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

Author: Salvatore Greco
Editor: Springer
ISBN: 149393094X
Size: 20,76 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
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In two volumes, this new edition presents the state of the art in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Reflecting the explosive growth in the field seen during the last several years, the editors not only present surveys of the foundations of MCDA, but look as well at many new areas and new applications. Individual chapter authors are among the most prestigious names in MCDA research, and combined their chapters bring the field completely up to date. Part I of the book considers the history and current state of MCDA, with surveys that cover the early history of MCDA and an overview that discusses the “pre-theoretical” assumptions of MCDA. Part II then presents the foundations of MCDA, with individual chapters that provide a very exhaustive review of preference modeling, along with a chapter devoted to the axiomatic basis of the different models that multiple criteria preferences. Part III looks at outranking methods, with three chapters that consider the ELECTRE methods, PROMETHEE methods, and a look at the rich literature of other outranking methods. Part IV, on Multiattribute Utility and Value Theories (MAUT), presents chapters on the fundamentals of this approach, the very well known UTA methods, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its more recent extension, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), as well as a chapter on MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique). Part V looks at Non-Classical MCDA Approaches, with chapters on risk and uncertainty in MCDA, the decision rule approach to MCDA, the fuzzy integral approach, the verbal decision methods, and a tentative assessment of the role of fuzzy sets in decision analysis. Part VI, on Multiobjective Optimization, contains chapters on recent developments of vector and set optimization, the state of the art in continuous multiobjective programming, multiobjective combinatorial optimization, fuzzy multicriteria optimization, a review of the field of goal programming, interactive methods for solving multiobjective optimization problems, and relationships between MCDA and evolutionary multiobjective optimization (EMO). Part VII, on Applications, selects some of the most significant areas, including contributions of MCDA in finance, energy planning problems, telecommunication network planning and design, sustainable development, and portfolio analysis. Finally, Part VIII, on MCDM software, presents well known MCDA software packages.

Operations Research And Management Science Handbook

Author: A. Ravi Ravindran
Editor: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781420009712
Size: 12,63 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
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Operations Research (OR) began as an interdisciplinary activity to solve complex military problems during World War II. Utilizing principles from mathematics, engineering, business, computer science, economics, and statistics, OR has developed into a full fledged academic discipline with practical application in business, industry, government and military. Currently regarded as a body of established mathematical models and methods essential to solving complicated management issues, OR provides quantitative analysis of problems from which managers can make objective decisions. Operations Research and Management Science (OR/MS) methodologies continue to flourish in numerous decision making fields. Featuring a mix of international authors, Operations Research and Management Science Handbook combines OR/MS models, methods, and applications into one comprehensive, yet concise volume. The first resource to reach for when confronting OR/MS difficulties, this text – Provides a single source guide in OR/MS Bridges theory and practice Covers all topics relevant to OR/MS Offers a quick reference guide for students, researchers and practitioners Contains unified and up-to-date coverage designed and edited with non-experts in mind Discusses software availability for all OR/MS techniques Includes contributions from a mix of domestic and international experts The 26 chapters in the handbook are divided into two parts. Part I contains 14 chapters that cover the fundamental OR/MS models and methods. Each chapter gives an overview of a particular OR/MS model, its solution methods and illustrates successful applications. Part II of the handbook contains 11 chapters discussing the OR/MS applications in specific areas. They include airlines, e-commerce, energy systems, finance, military, production systems, project management, quality control, reliability, supply chain management and water resources. Part II ends with a chapter on the future of OR/MS applications.

Group Decision Making

Author:
Editor: American Society for Training and Development
ISBN: 9781562862442
Size: 10,95 MB
Format: PDF
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Making a decision or solving a problem often means convening a group of two or more to hammer out at solution. This issue focuses on the technical elements of group problem solving and decision making in situations for which there is no absolute "correct" solution. The issue considers when to use a group approach, offers recommendations about roles, and presents a simple method for choosing appropriate approaches.

Understanding College And University Organization

Author: James L. Bess
Editor: Stylus Publishing, LLC
ISBN: 1579227740
Size: 20,70 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
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Now available in paperback, this two-volume work is intended to help readers develop powerful new ways of thinking about organizational principles, and apply them to policy-making and management in colleges and universities. The book is written with two audiences in mind: administrative and faculty leaders in institutions of higher learning, and students (both doctoral and Master's degree) studying to become upper-level administrators, leaders, and policy makers in higher education. It systematically presents a range of theories that can be applied to many of the difficult management situations that college and university leaders encounter. It provides them with the theoretical background to knowledgeably evaluate the many new ideas that emerge in the current literature, and in workshops and conferences. The purpose is to help leaders develop their own effective management style and approaches, and feel confident that their actions are informed by appropriate theory and knowledge of the latest research in the field. Without theory, organizational leaders are forced to treat each problem that they encounter as unique–as if it were a first-time occurrence. While leaders may have some experience with a particular issue, their solutions are usually not informed by the accumulated wisdom of others who have already encountered and resolved similar situations. The authors approach the theory of the organization and administration of colleges and universities from three quite different perspectives, or paradigms, each relying on different assumptions about the “reality” of organizational life in colleges and universities. The positivist paradigm–primarily an omnibus systems theory–integrates the chapters into a comprehensive, yet easily accessible whole. Social constructionism, the second paradigm, is introduced in each chapter to illuminate the difficulty of seeking and finding meaningful consensus on problems and policies, while also addressing important ethical issues that tend to be overlooked in leadership thought and action. The third paradigm, postmodernism, draws attention to difficulties of logic and communication under the constraints of strictly linear thinking that “authorities” at all levels attempt to impose on organizations. This “multiple paradigm” approach enables readers to become more cognizant of their own assumptions, how they may differ from those of others in their organization, and how those differences may both create difficulties in resolving problems and expand the range of alternatives considered in organizational decision making. The book offers readers the tools to balance the real-world needs to succeed in today’s challenging and competitive environment with the social and ethical aspirations of all its stakeholders and society at large. The authors’ aim is to elucidate how administration can be made more efficient and effective through rational decision-making while also respecting humanistic values. This approach highlights a range of phenomena that require attention if the institution is ultimately to be considered successful.

Rational Choice And Judgment

Author: Rex Brown
Editor: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 047171688X
Size: 13,40 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision. Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision using quantitative models of the decider's factual and value judgments. DA is already widely used in business, government, medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resources present only the logic and models rather than demonstrating how these methods can be effectively applied to the real world. This book offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusing on decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to make better, more informed decisions. It uses no mathematics beyond arithmetic. Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book provides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect sound modeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build on the thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; they provide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing to provide; they produce results that the decider can use; and they are based on intimate and continuous interactions with the decider. The methods outlined in this text take into account such factors as the use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjective knowledge. Replete with exercises, case studies, and observations from the author’s own extensive consulting experience, the book quickly engages readers and enables them to master decision analysis by doing rather than by simply reading. Using familiar situations, it demonstrates how to handle knowledge as it unfolds in the real world. A term project is presented in the final chapter, in which readers can select an actual decision-making problem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation. A sample report is provided in the appendix. Beginning with qualitative structuring, the text advances to sophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise, including: · Modeling decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives Risk analysis and assessment Communicating and justifying controversial decisions Personal life choices and political judgments Adapting decision aid to organizations The book's broad applicability makes it an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business management, systems engineering and general education. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department.

The Exceptional Manager

Author: Research Fellow Rick Delbridge
Editor: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780199292226
Size: 12,21 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
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How do businesses go beyond the prescriptive policies and make the shift from the 'low road' of cost to the 'high road' of innovation and value? This book presents an analysis of the context and the challenges, and offers managers and consultants a range of ideas that are helpful to their companies.

Risk Evaluation And Management

Author: V.T. Covello
Editor: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461321034
Size: 18,28 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Public attention has focused in recent years on an array of technological risks to health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, responsibilities for technological risk as sessment, evaluation, and management have grown in both the public and private sectors because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks inherent in modem society. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problems of assessing and balancing risks, costs, and benefits. The need to help society cope with technological risks has given rise to a new intellectual endeavor: the social and behavioral study of issues in risk evaluation and risk management. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many fields. Analyzing social and behavioral issues requires the efforts of political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, econ omists, psychologists, philosophers, and policy analysts, among others.